What will a successful Patriots season look like?

The start of the football season is upon us! The Kansas City Chiefs and Detroit Lions kick off the 2023 season tonight, which means it’s time to make some predictions about the 2023 NFL season.

The New England Patriots season begins in a few days when the NFC Champion Philadelphia Eagles fly to Foxborough to take on the Patriots Sunday afternoon. For the past few days, I have been polling NFL and Patriots reporters, writers, and fans to ask the critical question: What will a successful Patriots season look like? In addition, I asked them for a final record position.

Most analysts believe the Patriots will win over 6.5 games, which is the current Vegas over/under. Furthermore, most define a successful season as securing a playoff berth. The prevailing assumption is the Patriots are a much better team then last season; however, with a tougher schedule, it may not be enough to secure a playoff berth, let alone a playoff win.

So, without further ado, here is how an esteemed group of beat writers and reporters characterize a successful Patriots season.

NFL Beat Writers and Reporters

Brian Baldinger – Former NFL offensive lineman; NFL Network and Fox Sports insider

A winning record would be a good season; especially in that division.

Record: Over .500

Louie Benjamin – Pro Football Focus

From my perspective, a successful season would be two things: making the playoffs, and getting back to ‘Patriots football,’ by which I mean looking like a team coached by BB again, and not making silly mistakes to beat themselves like they uncharacteristically have done the past couple seasons.

Record: 10-7

Ben Rolfe – Managing Editor of Pro Football Network

For me a successful season is seeing Mac Jones take the next step and the offense finding a consistent weapon on the outside for him. Getting a player like [Kayshon] Boutte to be a major contributor would be a huge win, because he has the potential to be a top tier wide receiver in the NFL. Defensively we know what they will likely be so success should really be defined by the performance and development of the offense.

Record: 7-10

Aaron Schatz – Creator of Football Outsiders; Chief Analytics Officer for FTN Network

A successful season would be making the playoffs. But they have the hardest projected schedule in the league. It’s going to be tough.

Record: 8-9

George Forder – Miami Dolphins beat writer for SB Nation

I think a successful season for the Patriots this year would be a wild card birth. I’m not a huge believer in the roster that Belichick has put together, but you can’t really count them out either. I think Mac Jones and the offense will look better in 2023, it’s just the rest of the division is also improved. Realistically, I would predict that they’re good enough to miss out on a really high draft pick, but not good enough to compete for the division.

Record: 8-9

Mike Mitchell – New York Jets beat writer for Fansided

The growth of Mac Jones under Bill O’Brien will determine the Pats overall success. For the Pats to be a legitimate championship contender in the AFC they need elite play from the QB position to compete. Something they haven’t had since #12 was in the building.

Record: 9-8

Nick Sabato – Buffalo Bills writer for The Niagara Gazette

I’m not sure what the Patriots would think is successful, but it’s the NFL, so I’d assume it’s a winning record and a playoff berth. I think if they stay healthier than the rest of the division and get the Mac Jones of 2021, they have a chance. But Mac Jones is clearly the fourth-best quarterback in the division and they have the fourth-best offensive weapons.

Record: 6-8 wins

Mark Schofield – SB Nation

From where I sit, a successful season has two elements. First, finishing over .500. Obviously a tough division/schedule/conference, but .500 would be an accomplishment. Second? They go into 2024 believing Mac Jones is their franchise QB going forward. Honestly, that might be the bigger piece to the puzzle. Because if they have to reset the QB clock — as good as next year’s QB class might be — that sets everything back a season or two.

Record: Over .500

Patriots Beat Writers and Reporters

Chad Groff – The Athletic

There’s little doubt that these Patriots are better than last year’s Patriots. The offense and special teams should both be considerably better. But the schedule is brutal and the division is the best in football. So even with some improvement, I’m guessing the Pats finish with the same record as last season.

Record: 8-9

Alex Barth – 98.5 The Sports Hub

I’d say a successful season for the Patriots is making the playoffs, as Robert Kraft strongly hinted at in the spring.

Record: 9-8

Mike Kadlick – WEEI

Mac Jones finds comfortability in an NFL offense run by Bill O’Brien.

Record: 10-7

Chris Mason – MassLive

So to me, a successful season for the Patriots is earning a postseason berth and winning a playoff game. I’ve been on the beat since 2019, and in that four-year span, they’ve yet to win one. Two offseasons in a row, Robert Kraft has made it clear that’s a bar he wants them to clear. To be a successful in 2023, I think they need to finally hurdle it.

Record: 8-9

Mark Daniels – MassLive

For the Patriots, a successful 2023 season means they finish above .500 and are in the playoff picture. The team needs to show growth and signs of life after a disappointing 2022 campaign. A successful season would also mean growth from Mac Jones. If he shows he’s a capable starting quarterback and the Patriots finish above .500, I don’t think we’ll hear many complaints about the team’s 2023 season.

Record: 10-7

Christopher Price – The Boston Globe

Easy. While we can move the figurative goalposts on this question for many reasons, for me, it comes down to one thing: playing important games in January. This is a franchise that needs to get some sense of pride back, especially after what happened last season. That only comes with reaching the postseason. I think they’re capable of making a playoff run. They’ll need some help — I’m guessing there will be just enough regression from the Dolphins to do it.

Record: 9-8

Tanner James – A to Z Sports

I think a successful season for New England looks like Mac Jones taking the next step. Anything else is a step back. If Jones is unimpressive, then New England will likely be back in the QB market. I am not expecting any sudden meteoric rise, but at least returning to 2021 levels of “promise” That is a disastrous outcome given the excitement surrounding the franchise following the 2021 season. I think a good outcome for 2023 is the team looking competent and getting back on track. I think if the offense can take a slight step forward, and the defense remains in the top ten, that’s a good outcome. Given the strength of schedule, 8-10 wins would be impressive.

Record: 10-7

Pat Lane – Pats Pulpit

A successful season is Mac making a jump in his production, and solidifying his role as legitimate NFL starting QB, and the defense being top 5-10. Eliminating stupid mistakes should immediately make them better than last year.

Record: 10-7

Cam Garity – Patriots Wire

A successful season would have to be one where Mac Jones builds on his 2021 success and the offense is competent. The defense would need to be in the top 5 to be considered a success as they’ve set that standard, but I do not think the team must make the playoffs to have success overall. It’s a tough AFC and division and if the Patriots can find some progress with their rookies and second year players, there are some huge developments they can build on in an off-season with a ton of cap space. The Patriots are in year three of a three year rebuild and people fail to realize that Belichick has kept the team competitive during the rebuild. It’s not time to capitalize, and improve on 2021’s early success with Mac.

Record: 10-7

Bobby Thompson – The Bucs Report

A successful season is winning a Super Bowl, anything less is a failure. But it’s just getting back to a winning formula and flushing out the filth that was last season. The Patriots got better, adding Bill O’Brien to not only call offensive plays, but mentor Mac Jones was huge. They got nice pieces in free agency and the draft who should contribute, but they will be tested early. Their schedule is the hardest by far in the NFL so they will need to really step up. I think they are a 10 win team who can sneak into the playoffs, I think they have one of the best defenses in the NFL which will be a big help.

Record: 10-7

Nicholas Stevens (AKA Fitzy) – WEEI contributor and Patriots game host

The answer is much more than more wins than losses, or a return to the postseason and a playoff win. It’s a return to what we came to know Patriots football as under Bill Belichick. The hallmarks and the tenets of what The Patriot Way was all about. Fewer mistakes, more quality football plays. Being opportunistic and taking advantage of other teams miscues, forcing them into bad ways as opposed to making them yourself. An effort that’s all out, producing a team and a style of play that a hard working, blue collar historically rich area like New England and Pats Nation can be proud of. Not just playoffs and Super Bowls and spoils of greatness…but a team that’s developing with a bright future ahead, a real QB and the development of players on both sides of the ball we’ll be rooting for proudly for years to come. Back to the basics, real 2001 Patriots football…and hope that it grows from there in its own way, without the pressure of having to duplicate the success and glories we just witnessed since 2001.

Record: 9-8

Miguel Benzen – Pats cap expert

Mac Jones shows he should be the Patriots starting QB of the future. If those two things happen I will consider 2023 a very successful season regardless of what happens in the postseason.

Record: 11-6

Mike D’Abate – Patriots County

For the Pats to yield a winning season, Mac Jones must exhibit greater comfort and decisiveness under the tutelage of new offensive coordinator Bill O’Brien. New England has noticeably returned to a timing-based scheme, predicated on completions from quick, accurate throws; with Jones leading his receivers under the defense. In turn, New England’s offensive line needs to provide the necessary protection to allow their running game to facilitate the offense on early downs. Defensively, the Patriots are as solid as any in the NFL, which should keep them in contention for most of the season.

Record: 9-8

Patriots Analysts and Social Media Accounts

Pats Buzz – @PatsBuzz

To me, a successful season for the Patriots would consist of a record of 10-7 or better, a playoff berth, finding out Mac Jones can be the future at QB and staying competitive against the top teams.

Record: 9-8

Babz – @BabzOnTheMic

So I would consider a successful patriots season to be 10-7. Even if they miss the playoffs. To be 3 games over .500 and have double digit wins is a step in the right direction. If they miss the playoffs or say, make it and lose wild card weekend, fans will be upset but it’s an improvement from last year and should give everyone a ton of optimism for 2024. Obviously if they win a playoff game it’ll be the ultimate W for this franchise to get back on track.

Record: 10-7

Boston Cream – @itsbostoncream

The team is competitive in most games even if beaten. Clear and obvious development from young players. An offense who can move the ball and score points, even if behind. A defense than shows it can compete with high powered offenses. Coaching improvements and a more disciplined team in terms of penalties and assignments.

Record: 8-9

Zac Ventola – @NEPatriotsToday

For me, a successful season looks like promise. I want to see Mac Jones improve from his rookie year, and guys like Uche/Dugger/Onwenu to keep playing at an elite level. Rookies (Mostly Douglas, Boutte, Gonzalez, Mapu, White) should at least show some flashes where we can look at them and say “he might be the guy for us if he can play like that”. FA pickups ideally have a large role and play that role successfully. No more silly mistakes. Don’t screw up the games that we SHOULD win (ex. Chicago and LV Raiders last year.)

Record: 10-7

Justin Ramos – @NEPinsider

A successful season is going to the playoffs and winning at least one game. Anything else is luxury!

Record: 9-8

Ethan Hurwitz – @HurwitzSports

I think they sneak into the postseason as a wild card and Mac has a year like his rookie year.

Record: 10-7

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