The 2023 Patriots’ season marked uncharted territory for the franchise. Never have the Patriots struggled more than they did this season under Bill Belichick. From 2001 to 2019, the Patriots went to nine Super Bowls, winning six of them. As a result, they created one of the best sports dynasties off all-time. In the Brady and Belichick era, the team recorded 19 consecutive winning seasons with 13 AFC championship appearances. Patriots owner Robert Kraft bought the Patriots in 1994 for $172M. Currently, the franchise is worth over $7B.
After letting Tom Brady walk in March of 2020, the Patriots have since gone 29-37, with one playoff appearance. The Patriots finished below .500 in 2020, 2022, and now 2023. At the helm of it all is Mac Jones. The Patriots drafted Mac Jones with their 15th overall pick in the 2021 draft, and it started off exceeding expectations. However, after earning a playoff spot in 2021, the Patriots got hammered by the Bills 47-17 in the first round and have since not returned to the postseason.
When the Patriots released their end-of-season letter to season ticket holders in early February, team owner Robert Kraft described this year’s NFL Draft as “the most anticipated” draft of ownership’s tenure, acknowledging the team’s possession of the No. 3 overall draft selection.
New England will also enter free agency with just above $82M in cap space, barring potential extensions beforehand. That cap number can also vary depending on any changes to Kyle Dugger’s transition tender, with a current cap hit of $13.7M.
As Robert Kraft alluded to, the Patriots organization is entering one of their most crucial off-seasons in decades, entering the start of a rebuild following their 4-13 finish in 2023. Allocating resources properly and making the right decisions can help speed up the rebuild and get the team back into Super Bowl contention.
In this article, Pro Football Focus’ mock draft simulator and the website’s free agent contract projections were utilized. The projected contracts were then compared with numerous other analysts’ projections and inflated or deflated depending on whether or not New England would need to pay a premium or discount for a player to derive an exact value.
To confirm these signings and draft selections remained within the Patriots’ 2024 cap, salary cap expert Miguel Benzan’s (@patscap via X) salary cap workbook was utilized. You can receive Benzan’s workbook by donating to his fundraising foundation: https://fundraise.givesmart.com/vf/patscap. After planning a post-(6/1) release of DeVante Parker, which would free up just over $M in cap space, some extra money was left over following the free agent moves and draft signings in this article to cater to the extensions of DT Christian Barmore and RB Rhamondre Stevenson.
Without further ado, here is what the Patriots ideal off-season looks like.
Moves Already Made:
Additions
Signed OT Chukwuma Okorafor (1 year, $4M)
Departures
Released Lawrence Guy
Released Adrian Phillips
Released J.C. Jackson ~ $13.46M cap increase
Traded Mac Jones
Re-Signings
Placed the transition tender on S Kyle Dugger ~ $13.7M 2024 cap hit
Re-signed QB Nathan Rourke
Re-signed Signed TE Hunter Henry (3 years, $27M)
Re-signed DB Alex Austin
Re-signed OT Tyrone Wheatley JR.
FREE AGENCY
OT/OG Mike Onwenu (4-years/$68M): Mike Onwenu has been a staple of New England’s offensive line for several years and deserves a new, generous contract. He’s played three different positions on the offensive line and has been a top, consistent performer since he was drafted in 2020.
At age 26, Onwenu still has multiple years of high-level play that can contribute to an organization. New England cannot afford to lose his consistent, prominent play and versatility as a player. If Onwenu is not prioritized to re-sign within the team’s front office, the Patriots’ offensive line will need much more re-tooling than if he is retained.
WR Calvin Ridley (3-year/$57M): Calvin Ridley may not have produced to the extent many were hoping for in 2023, but he remains a quality separator who can move the chains with his route-running ability. In 2023, Ridley caught 76 balls for 1016 yards and eight touchdowns, which are quality totals.
Too much was expected of Ridley as he returned to NFL play after missing a season and a half of football. He may not be the game-changing wide receiver fans have been hoping to find for years, but he helps bring an explosive element to a dull offense. Not to mention, Ridley offers a rookie quarterback trust and stability, which can help the rookie develop properly.
OT Tyron Smith (2-year/$27M): The Patriots need a stable presence at left tackle to help develop a rookie quarterback. The quarterback will need time in the pocket to learn how to process the game at the NFL level, so an inexperienced rookie left tackle may not be the best option to provide stability.
Although Tyron Smith is 33 years old, he consistently performs at a high level, almost every year. In addition to helping a rookie quarterback grow, Smith could mentor a day-two draft selection and help develop the draftee into a quality offensive tackle. Smith would be a short-term fix but also contribute to a long-term fix.
QB Jacoby Brissett (2-year/$15M): When searching for a veteran quarterback to mentor a rookie, Jacoby Brissett seems to be the best, most inexpensive option in free agency this off-season, especially considering that Joe Flacco is eyeing a return to Cleveland.
As a former Patriot who new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt also coached in Cleveland in 2022, Brissett has the tools to compete for a starting job. However, there may also be some worry about whether he will stay consistent throughout an entire season. Nonetheless, Brissett will provide some competition with a rookie quarterback over the summer throughout training camp, which could help push the rookie to improve and possibly start early into the 2024 season.
DT DJ Reader (2-year/$26M): The depth within New England’s defensive tackle group is beginning to diminish and will undoubtedly need a boost shortly. DJ Reader is a defensive piece that can contribute heavily while New England acquires younger talent. Reader, 29, would also be a quality veteran presence, which the organization could use after the release of Lawrence Guy earlier this off-season.
Reader hasn’t typically been the type of player who fills out the stat sheet in his eight-year career. Still, he is an outstanding compliment player on the defensive front who can create openings for others to penetrate past the opposing offensive line.
WR Kendrick Bourne (2-year/$12M): Kendrick Bourne is not only an excellent wide receiver who can produce, but he’s also a great person and someone you need to have in the locker room. Bourne’s 2022 season didn’t go as planned, as he had a down year production-wise compared to his first year, with the Patriots racking up 800 yards and five touchdowns. In 2023, he was off to a great start, totaling 406 yards and four touchdowns in only eight games, before he unfortunately suffered an ACL tear, ending his season.
Bourne’s injury will likely affect his free agency market. Although he has voiced his interest in returning to New England on several occasions, he and his agency, Disruptive Sports, remain persistent in testing the open market.
EDGE Anfernee Jennings (2-year/$12M): 2020 third-round draft selection Anfernee Jennings had a career year in 2023, posting career highs in almost every basic statistical category. Jennings became a proficient run-stopper and was a quality complement piece alongside Matthew Judon and Josh Uche.
With Uche not returning to New England in this mock, Jennings will see an expanded role alongside 2023 second-round draft pick Keion White, who showed impressive flashes throughout last season.
RB Ezekiel Elliott (2-year/$7M): Last season, Ezekiel Elliott looked more explosive than he had in recent years and was able to perform well when given touches, in part due to a reduced workload being able to keep him fresh throughout the season.
In an introductory video posted on the Patriots’ various social media platforms, offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt acknowledged the importance of the run game in today’s NFL. Experimenting with the Stevenson-Elliott split backfield with an improved and healthy offensive line could be a dangerous weapon. Adding a true third-down running back to that backfield would also be beneficial and lead me into the next signing…
RB Antonio Gibson (2-year/$3.5M): Gibson would be an interesting pickup. He broke out late into the 2020 season and followed that year with a 1,000-yard rushing season. His rushing production has heavily decreased since 2021, as he rushed for only 265 yards and one touchdown in 2023. However, Gibson has gradually improved his receiving totals every year since coming into the league. He was drafted out of Memphis as a receiver and became a running back in the NFL with the Washington Commanders.
Washington finally began using Gibson in a way that properly suited his skillset in 2023. Gibson could serve as a cheap running back option in free agency who can provide receiving upside at the position, which the Patriots have been missing for a few years. Gibson can at least compete for a roster spot in training camp.
LB Mack Wilson (2-year/$8M): Since being brought in via trade in 2022, Mack Wilson has served as a quality depth linebacker for New England for a couple of seasons. Wilson has a great relationship with new head coach Jerod Mayo, who will likely want to retain the 25-year-old.
Wilson has more room to grow as a player, and it would be difficult to see him expand his game with another organization. He and Raekwon McMillan, returning from a season-ending Achilles injury, will be an experienced pair behind starters Ja’Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai.
CB Myles Bryant (2-year/$7M): Bryant may not be the flashy outside corner who can give a prominent receiver rough nights, but he is a versatile nickel corner who does what he is asked fairly well—aside from when he is forced to cover CeeDee Lamb due to secondary injuries.
Former head coach Bill Belichick was a big fan of Bryant over the years, and one would assume Jerod Mayo will have similar feelings toward the 26-year-old corner. Bryant would also provide veteran experience alongside Jonathan Jones within a young defensive back core.
TE Pharaoh Brown (1-year/$2M): Pharaoh Brown was originally an addition to the practice squad in 2023 but proved a very sneaky pickup for New England. His exceptional blocking ability, especially during rushing plays, was valuable to the team amid an offensive line crisis caused by injuries. Brown also provided occasional receiving upside when needed.
TE Harrison Bryant (2-year/$4M): Harrison Bryant could be a decent depth signing at tight end who could provide some receiving upside. Bryant wasn’t a prominent factor for Cleveland during the 2023 regular season, but he played an essential role in the Browns’ wildcard matchup against the Texans. Bryant caught four balls for a total of 65 yards during the game. In a positional group that needs depth, Bryant, who Alex Van Pelt formerly coached, will provide some depth.
OG Greg Van Roten (1-year/$2.5M): New England desperately needs depth at offensive guard after struggling with injuries at the position throughout the 2023 season. Van Roten, age 33, is a seasoned veteran who can offer experience within the young group and provide some extra depth. He may not be a prime candidate for the 53-man roster during summer cutdowns, but he could help throughout training camp and possibly on the practice squad.
WR Jalen Reagor (1-year/$1.5M): Jalen Reagor, a former first-round draft selection in 2020, was an effective kick returner during his stint with New England. He’s not the flashy wide receiver he was projected to be coming out of the draft several years ago, but he made some quality plays near the end of the 2023 season, most notably returning a kick for a touchdown against the Bills in Week 17.
Reagor would be another camp body over the summer who can prove himself worthy of a roster spot and serve as a sixth receiver on the main roster, primarily as a returner.
NFL DRAFT
Round 1, third overall – QB Jayden Daniels (LSU): In this mock, Drake Maye was drafted to the Commanders at No. 2 overall, leaving Jayden Daniels as the best available quarterback on the board. Some brief thoughts of trading back from No. 3 occurred, but it is very risky to play around with the draft order when you have a prospect like Daniels available. A trade-down gives another quarterback-needy team a chance to jump ahead of New England.
Quarterbacks with the running ability that Jayden Daniels has are difficult to come by. Daniels’ film shows a lack of consistently throwing with anticipation on routes and completing passes over the middle of the field, which could also be partly caused by the offensive system he played in. However, in addition to his rushing ability, which provides much upside, Daniels has an impressive deep ball, has exceptional arm talent, can extend plays with the use of his legs, and has good pocket presence; he doesn’t roll out after missing his first read. Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is a fair comparison when you watch Daniel’s game.
Nonetheless, New England takes a much-needed shot at a young quarterback in hopes of developing Daniels into a future franchise starter.
Trade: Patriots receive No. 41 and No. 91 from the Packers in exchange for No. 34.
Round 2, 41st overall—OT Kingsley Suamataia (BYU): The Patriots need to address offensive tackle in the draft. Signing 33-year-old Tyron Smith provides stability within the organization’s short-term plans at left tackle, but the organization will need a long-term solution.
During a media session several weeks ago, I asked NFL Draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah about this year’s offensive tackle class, to which he acknowledged a noticeable “tier-drop” from the typical eight prospects projected to be drafted in the first round. When asked about the price to trade back into the first round for one of those prospects, Jeremiah projected the price to be a 2nd and 3rd round pick in 2024, which New England can’t afford to give up at the start of a rebuild.
Kingsley Suamataia is a raw tackle prospect but a very athletic at his size (6’5″, 326 lbs). Suamataia is a solid pass-protector who shows great mobility and quickness with his feet. He’s also seen much success in the run game, being able to use his body properly to create run holes.
On the other hand, Suamataia tends to be overly aggressive at times, leading to missed blocks. In addition, he needs to improve his hand and foot coordination and consistently position himself correctly. Fortunately, with the proper coaching and development, Suamataia would have the tools to turn himself into a good offensive tackle in the NFL.
Trade: Patriots receive No. 75 and No. 121 from the Bears in exchange for No. 68.
Round 3, 75th overall—WR Javon Baker (UCF): New England desperately needs effective wide receivers who can create separation. Javon Baker can do just that with his very quick feet, which allow him to be shifty off of his release, leading him into his exceptional route-running abilities.
Baker isn’t a receiver with game-changing speed, but he has enough straight-line speed to make him a threat down the seam at the NFL level. He is especially impressive in making fantastic contested catches and high-pointing the ball, which his 6’1″, 202 lbs frame assists him. Baker’s ball skills and ability to track deep balls continue to push him up draft boards.
Round 3, 91st overall—CB Max Melton (Rutgers): The Patriots have a lot of young, unproven depth at the cornerback position. Veteran corner Jonathan Jones will also become a free agent during the 2025 off-season, which leaves a potential vacancy on the roster after next season at outside corner alongside Christian Gonzalez.
Max Melton consistently played on the outside during his junior season at Rutgers. He’s a twitchy athlete with the physical attributes to compete with quality receivers at the NFL level: a 99-percentile broad jump, a 94-percentile vertical leap, and a 4.39 forty-yard dash at the NFL combine via NFL Draft Buzz. Melton’s weight (187 lbs) could be slightly concerning when matching up against physical receivers, but it’s hard to pass up such a fluid corner with the ball skills he possesses.
Round 4, 102 overall—TE Cade Stover (Ohio State): New England needs a young tight end who can hopefully serve as a future replacement for Hunter Henry and be able to work alongside the veteran tight end during the remainder of his new contract. Cade Stover is an effective pass-catcher who can be added to the New England offense. At 6’4″, 247 lbs, Stover is surprisingly agile for his size, assisting him in his impressive run-after-the-catch ability. Both Stover and Henry would also be reliable threats in the red zone, an area where New England has struggled to see success even before last season.
Stover will need some tweaking to improve his poor blocking skills, but his talent as a receiver is difficult to pass up.
Round 4, 121st overall—WR Ainias Smith (Texas A&M): One round later, New England strikes again with another wide receiver prospect. This time it’s Texas A&M’s explosive prospect, Ainias Smith. At 5’10”, 190 lbs, Smith showcases impressive start-stop ability with an incredible burst when running routes and when he has the ball in his hands. He’s a creative runner with the ball, allowing many catch-and-run opportunities. He and Pop Douglas could become quite the duo.
Due to other team needs, New England may not have the chance to take a receiver early in the draft. Therefore, it could be beneficial for them to draft receivers often rather than early.
Round 5, 136th overall—OT Javon Foster (Missouri): In round five, New England adds to its offensive tackle depth following the recent signing of former Pittsburg Steeler Chukwuma Okorafor, who will likely serve as the team’s swing tackle.
Foster stands at 6’5″, 314 lbs, with exceptional athleticism and arm length at 34″. On the downside, Foster lacks stable technique and has some issues with his footwork, which can be fixed through proper coaching. Given Foster’s lengthy starting experience at the collegiate level, he could serve as a depth piece on the offensive line in 2024. As it currently stands, Foster would compete with the likes of Calvin Anderson, Tyrone Wheatley Jr., Conor McDermott, Vederian Lowe, and others during training camp.
Round 6, 179th overall—S Jaylin Simpson (Auburn): Former Patriots safety Devin McCourty left some big shoes to fill at free safety when he retired before the 2023 season. New England has sometimes tried to fill his shoes with players such as Kyle Dugger, Jalen Mills, and even cornerback Jonathan Jones. No one replicated the same impact McCourty had.
Jaylin Simpson primarily played deep safety at Auburn during his senior season but showed himself as a versatile player, spending time in the box and as a slot cornerback. Simpson’s tall frame (6’1″) and lengthy arms allow him to wrap around receivers and force incompletions fairly easily. He’s excellent in coverage, especially zone. He would be a viable option to try and replace Devin McCourty’s role.
Round 6, 192 overall—RB Dillon Johnson (Washington): Dillon Johnson would be a quality piece in the Patriots’ running back room to complement Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott. His size (6’0″, 217 lbs) and strength allow him to be a solid bruiser-back who can punch it in at the goal line when needed, scoring 16 rushing touchdowns in 2023. Johnson has also been relatively efficient in the receiving game, catching almost 150 balls during his first three seasons before seeing fewer targets during his senior year. He would be competing with the likes of Kevin Harris and Antonio Gibson for a roster spot.
Round 7, 231st overall—OG Layden Robinson (Texas A&M): As acknowledged earlier when explaining the signing of veteran offensive guard Greg Van Roten, New England is thin and needs better depth to ensure stability if injuries occur. Layden Robinson could provide the needed depth but will see an uphill battle to do so as a seventh-round draft selection. He would be a work in progress, but he has the physical traits to help him succeed: 6’4″, 302 lbs, 34 5/8″ arm length.
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