Game preview: Patriots vs Dolphins

The (8-7) Miami Dolphins and (7-8) New England Patriots will match up in Foxboro, MA, on Sunday at Gillette Stadium. The Dolphins defeated the Patriots in Week 1 by a score of 20-7. The Dolphins are on a four-game losing streak, while the Patriots have lost two consecutive games.

Let’s preview the game as I give you my quick hits, prediction, former players, and who wins head-to-head matchups.

Quick hits

– The Patriots and Dolphins started playing each other twice a season in 1967. There have been splits in 30 different seasons.

– The Patriots are 0-5 this season when playing teams with a winning record.

– The last time the Dolphins swept the Patriots in back-to-back years was during the 1999-2000 season.

– The Patriots have tallied 50 sacks this season. That’s second in the NFL, and they are on pace to finish with 56 sacks. If the Patriots continue their pace they will finish with the second-most sacks in team history. The record is 66 sacks recorded in 1963. The Patriots also had 58 sacks in 1977. The most sacks the team has had under Bill Belichick is 49 sacks in 2015.

– Matthew Judon needs three sacks to tie Andre Tippett’s 18.5 sacks in one season, a franchise record.

– Marcus Jones returned an interception last week and now has a defensive touchdown, special teams touchdown, and an offensive touchdown. He is the fourth player in NFL history to do so joining Frank Bacon (1920), Bill Dudley (1947), and Tommy Harmon (1947). Jones returned a punt 84 yards for a touchdown vs. the New York Jets on November 20.

– The Patriots lead the NFL with seven non-offensive touchdowns this season. The Patriots have four interception returns, two fumble returns, and one punt return. The franchise record for most non-offensive touchdowns in one season is nine, which was accomplished twice, in 2010 and 1961.

– The Dolphins have the second most passing plays of 15+ yards this season (111).

– The Dolphins are the only team with two receivers with over 1000 receiving yards.

– The Dolphins’ offense has committed 42 penalties this season, second most among all teams.

– The Dolphins’ defense has allowed the most points in AWAY games this season, allowing 31.5 points per game.

– The Dolphins have the lowest-graded special teams unit, per PFF.

Connections

Former Patriots

* Keion Crossen (Patriots: Player DB 2018; Dolphins: Player CB 2022-)

* Trey Flowers (Patriots: Player LB 2015-18; Dolphins: Player LB 2022-)

* Elandon Roberts (Patriots: Player LB 2016-19; Dolphins: Player LB 2020-)

* Eric Rowe (Patriots: Player S 2016-18; Dolphins: Player S 2019-)

* Calvin Munson (Patriots: Player LB 2018-19^, 2021; Dolphins: Player LB 2021-)

* Steve Gregory (Patriots: Player DB 2012-13; Dolphins: Safeties Coach 2021-)

* Chris Grier (Patriots: Regional Scout 1995-99; Dolphins: General Manager 2016-)

* Josh Boyer (Patriots: CB Coach 2012-18, DB Coach 2009-11, Coaching Asst.; Dolphins: Defensive Coord. 2020-, Def. Pass Game Coord./CB 2019)

* Ty McKenzie (Patriots: Player LB 2009-10; Dolphins: Outside LB Coach 2022-)

*Wes Welker (Patriots: Player WR 2007-12; Dolphins: WR Coach 2022-)

Former Dolphins

* Davon Godchaux (Patriots: Player DL 2021-; Dolphins: Player DL 2017-20)

* Raekwon McMillan (Patriots: Player LB 2021-; Dolphins: Player LB 2017-19)

* DeVante Parker (Patriots: Player WR 2022; Dolphins: Player WR 2015-21)

* Billy Yates (Patriots: Asst. OL Coach 2021-; Dolphins: Player OL 2003)

Who has the advantage?

When the Patriots run: Edge: Patriots

After a carer high 172 rushing yards in Week 15, Rhamondre Stevenson didn’t continue his dominance against the Bengals, as he had 13 carries for 30 yards and a costly fumble that sealed the game for the Bengals. However, although Damien Harris is questionable, he practiced last week and should play. Miami defends the run well, as they rank tenth in the league, allowing 109.1 rushing yards per game, and are 11th, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Lineman Raekwon Davis, Zach Siler, and Christian Wilkins are big athletic players who utilize their strengths to hurt opposing offenses. The weather is projecting a cold, windy day in Foxborough, which means the Patriots’ will want to run the ball. If Harris and Stevenson are both active, they should get back on track. The offensive line has been on an upward trajectory after a rocky start, and with tackle Yodny Cajuste potentially active, that should also help the run game. However, Patriots tight end Jonnu Smith will be inactive, and Hunter Henery is listed as questionable, which will require the Patriots to find creative ways to block, as Belichick likes utilizing tight ends in the run game. The Patriots should have a slight edge in this matchup, but not by much.

When the Dolphins run: Edge: Patriots

The Dolphins’ rushing attack could be better, and they don’t run the ball much as a team. After trading Chase Edmonds earlier in the season, the Dolphins have been using Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson, with both running backs splitting carries. Mostert leads the team with 791 rushing yards, averaging 4.9 a carry, while Wilson has 275 yards, averaging 5.2 yards per attempt. Miami should run the ball more, as they won’t have their starting quarterback. However, when the Dolphins commit to running, they rank 27th in the league in average rushing yards per game and 19th in yards per carry. Meanwhile, the Patriots defended the run game and limited Joe Mixon to 65 yards on 16 attempts. The Patriots’ front consists of Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchaux, Christain Barmore, and Deatrich Wise, and they do an excellent job at controlling the line of scrimmage. New England allows 109.8 yards per game, ninth in the league, and have gotten better at stopping the run since the last season. So this should be an easy edge for the Patriots.

When the Patriots pass: Edge: Patriots

Mac Jones has definitely regressed since his rookie season, but it’s not all his fault. The coaching and playmakers haven’t been able to help the second-year quarterback, which is why the Patriots’ offense is statically ranked so poorly. Patriots fans are wondering why Kendrick Bourne isn’t on the field most of the time. Last week Bourne emerged from the doghouse, and what do you know – he caught six passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. The Patriots’ passing attack has a chance to prove it has what it takes to compete in the playoffs this weekend. Miami’s secondary is dealing with injuries, and Pro Bowl cornerback Xavien Howard is also in danger of missing Sunday’s game due to a leg injury. As a team, Miami allows 244.7 yards per game through the air, which is 28th in the league, and they’re allowing 6.6 yards per pass, 16th. Mac Jones is the sixth-best quarterback and has a clean pocket when he isn’t facing pressure. However, Jones is the 32nd-ranked quarterback when defenders rush him. Part of the reason is receivers not getting separation, but with lackluster Miami rushers, Jones should have plenty of time. This matchup will dictate the game, and with injuries piling up for Miami, the Patriots will need to take advantage.

When the Dolphins pass: Edge: Dolphins

The Dolphins’ passing attack will look much different as Tua Tagovailoa will be inactive due to suffering his third concussion. However, Miami arguably has the NFL’s top receivers, Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill. They’re the only receiver duo in the NFL over the 1,000-yard mark. In addition, veteran backup Teddy Bridgewater is in line to start his second game of 2022. New England will be without multiple starters in the secondary as Jack and Marcus Jones will be inactive. Miami runs a very explosive offense, and the Patriots need to devise a game plan that limits the big passing plays. In Week 1, the Patriots limited the big passing plays by having a successful pass rush. Matthew Judon and Josh Uche have racked up sacks this season, which will be key as the Patriots’ secondary lacks playmakers. The Dolphins should have the edge in this matchup, but if the Patriots want to win big, they will need to shut down Teddy Bridgewater.

Special teams: Edge: Patriots

Although the Patriots have had their ups and down’s on special teams, Pro Football Focus ranks the Dolphins dead last in special teams. Last week veteran Nick Folk missed two extra points. Folk hadn’t missed an extra point this season. However, there was wind last week. It could have changed the game’s outcome if Folk connected on those extra points. Meanwhile, Michael Palardy continues his poor play after another short kick as a result of botching the snap. The Bengals kick returner crossed the 25-yard line every time and took a kick to the 40. On the flip side, Dolphins’ kicker Jason Sanders missed a crucial field goal last week against the Packers. Sanders is 23 of 28 on field goal attempts and has been shakey. For the punt game Thomas Morstrad excels for the Dolphins and has 22 kicks inside the 20. The Patriots will lose a key piece on special teams as Marcus Jones will be out with a concussion. Myles Bryant or Piere Strong are possibilities to handle return duties.

Senior coaching staff

New England:

Head Coach – Bill Belichick

Senior football advisor/offensive line – Matt Patricia

Offensive assistant/quarterbacks – Joe Judge

Running backs – Vinnie Sunseri

Wide receivers – Troy Brown

Offensive line – Billy Yates

Linebackers – Steve Belichick

Linebackers – Jerod Mayo

Cornerbacks – Mike Pellegrino

Special teams coordinator – Cam Achord

Miami:

Head Coach – Mike McDaniel

Offensive coordinator – Frank Smith

Quarterbacks – Darrell Bevell

Running backs – Kelly Skipper

Wide receivers – Wes Welker

Offensive line – Aaron Kromer

Defensive coordinator – Josh Boyer

Defensive line – Austin Clark

Linebackers – Anthony Campanile

Safeties – Steve Gregory

Special teams coordinator – Danny Crossman

Injury Report

Key:

DNP: Did not participate in practice

LP: Limited participation in practice

FP: Full participation in practice

NL: Not listed

Patriots:

OUT

CB Marcus Jones (concussion)

CB Jack Jones (knee)

TE Jonnu Smith (concussion)

WR DeVante Parker (concussion)

Doubtful

N/A

Questionable

CB Jalen Mills (groin)

OT Yodny Cajuste (calf)

RB Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle)

WR Tyquan Thornton (knee)

TE Hunter Henry (knee)

CB Jonathan Jones (chest)

Dolphins:

Out

QB Tua Tagovailoa (concussion)

Doubtful

OT Eric Fisher (calf)

Questionable

OT Terron Armstead (toe)

CB Xavien Howard (knee)

LB Bradley Chubb (ankle)

WR River Cracraft (calf)

FB Alex Ingold (thumb)

OT Greg Little (foot)

Latest Patriots transactions

12/27 Patriots Sign DB Tae Hayes to the Practice Squad

12/27 Patriots placed TE Scotty Washington on the Practice Squad Injured Reserve List

Game Officials

Head Referee – Brad Allen (8th season in the NFL and 8th as head official)

Weather Forecast

Clear skies with a few passing clouds. Low 33F. Winds light and variable. 7% snow.

Patriots Beat Prediction

Patriots: 22

Dolphins: 17

Game stories linked

This will be updated as more articles get published.

Expert Picks for Patriots and Dolphins Week 17 Matchup

Patriots playoff hopes come down to Sunday’s matchup with the Dolphins

The Patriots will be without key starters on Sunday

Brodcast information

per patriots.com

TELEVISION: This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Ian Eagle will handle play-by-play duties with Charles Davis as the color analyst. Evan Washburn will work from the sidelines. The game will be produced by Mark Wolff and directed by Suzanne Smith.

LOCAL RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub is the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. A complete listing of the network’s 33 stations can be found here. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.

Follow me on Twitter @Thepatriotsbeat to follow the latest updates around the league and how they impact the Patriots’ playoff chances.

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