Game preview: Patriots vs Bills

The Patriots wrap up their regular season against their divisional rival, the Buffalo Bills. It has been a brutal week in the NFL, but all eyes are ahead. The Patriots can clinch the seventh seed in the playoffs with a win. However, a loss will make the playoffs nearly impossible.

I go into everything you need to know, including fast facts, former players, who wins each matchup, quotes from the opponent, where to watch, and more.

Follow along for coverage on Twitter @Thepatriotsbeat. Let’s dive in.

Quick hits

If the Patriots win

The Patriots will qualify for the postseason for the 29th time in franchise history. This would only be the sixth time the Patriots clinched a wildcard spot.

The Patriots will record another winning season. The Patriots have 35 winning seasons in the NFL since 1970, second to the Steelers (39).

Bill Belichick will become the first NFL head coach to lead a team to 20 playoff appearances. Belichick is tied with Don Shula with 19 postseason berths.

Mac Jones will become the seventh quarterback to reach the postseason in back-to-back years to start his NFL career. He would join Lamar Jackson, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Andy Dalton, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco, and Ben Roethlisberger.

Offensive quick hits

If Mac Jones completes over 66.5% of his passes this week, he will become second in completion percentage over all quarterbacks through their first two seasons, only behind Joe Burrow.

With an offensive touchdown, Marcus Jones will become the second Patriots defensive player to have more than one offensive score in a season. LB Mike Vrabel had two touchdowns in 2004, three in 2005, and two in 2007. Marcus Jones has scored on a punt return, interception return, and a 48-yard catch and run.

Rhamondre Stevenson needs 14 more rushing yards to reach 1,000 rushing yards. It would be the first 1,000-yard season for Stevenson and the first 1,000 Patriots rusher since 2016 when LeGarrette Blount rushed for 1,161 yards.

If Tyquan Thornton has a rushing touchdown this week, he will become the first rookie wide receiver with two rushing touchdowns.

Defensive quick hits

The Patriots lead the NFL with eight non-offensive touchdowns this season. (7 defensive and one punt return) The last team with nine non-offensive touchdowns was the Dallas Cowboys, which was reached in 2021. The NFL record for most non-offensive touchdowns is 13, which was accomplished in 1998 by the Seattle Seahawks.

The Patriots have five interceptions returned for a touchdown this season, which leads the NFL. The Patriots need one more interception returned for a touchdown to set a franchise record.

Last week the Patriots had their fourth consecutive week with a defensive touchdown and reached seven defensive touchdowns this season. It set a franchise record for the most defensive touchdowns scored in one season in franchise history. The Chicago Bears had nine defensive touchdowns in 2012.

With a defensive score this week, the Patriots will become the first team since the 1994 Rams to score a defensive touchdown in five straight games.

The Patriots currently have 52 sacks this season, second in the NFL.

Kyle Dugger has three defensive touchdowns this season. Only three players since 1990 have scored four defensive touchdowns in one season. Dugger will also look to become the first Patriots player with three interceptions returned for a touchdown.

With one sack Josh Uche will tie Matthew Judon, Mike Vrabel, and Chandler Jones at 12 1/2 sacks in one season, tying second place for most sacks in one season under a Bill Belichick-coached team.

Matthew Judon is third in the NFL with 15 1/2 sacks this season. Matthew Judon needs three sacks to tie Andre Tippett’s 18 1/2 sacks, which leads the Patriots franchise.

Bills quick hits

Josh Allen leads all quarterbacks in completions on 20+ yard throws this season (32).

Although Josh Allen is the highest-rated quarterback under pressure, he has committed the most turnover worthy plays through 17 weeks (29).

Stefon Diggs is the only wide receiver with 100+ receptions, 1,300+ yards, and 10+ touchdowns.

The Bills’ defense has missed 153 tackles this season, the third most by any team.

Since Tom Brady left, the Bills are 5-1 against the Patriots and have combined for a total score of 176 against the Patriots 92. Over that period, Josh Allen has scored 15 touchdowns and one interception and has recorded a 114.2 passer rating. Meanwhile, Patriots quarterbacks have a combined three touchdowns, four interceptions, and a recorded 66.7 passer rating.

Connections

Former Patriots

WR Jake Kumerow (Patriots player, 2017, Bills player, 2021-present)

C Ryan Wendell (Patriots player 2008-2015, Bills Asst. OL coach 2020-present)

Former Bills

OL Connor McDermott (Bills player, 2017-2019, Patriots Player ,2022-present

Who has the advantage? When the Patriots run – Edge: Bills

The Patriots got back Alabama product Damien Harris last week, but he didn’t add much to the Patriots’ running game. Harris tallied 31 yards on nine attempts. Rhamondre Stevenson has taken the majority of carries this season, as the sophomore is 14 yards away from reaching 1,000 rushing yards. Last week against Miami, the duo of Stevenson and Harris reunited but managed only 77 yards on 21 attempts, averaging 3.6 yards a carry. Part of the Patriots’ offensive struggles has been the inability to lean on the run game, putting the ball in Mac’s hands too often. This week will be another tall task, as Buffalo has been dominant against the run this season. The Bills allow 104 yards per game, fourth in the league, and 4.3 yards per rush, 13th in the league. The Bills like to control the line of scrimmage, and with an inconsistent Patriots offensive line, they did accomplish that in Week 13 when the two teams faced off. The Patriots are much healthier this week, which could lead to a closer game. However, it all starts with the run game. The Bills stack up their defensive line with Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, and DaQuan Jones, with Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds at linebacker. In previous matchups, Damien Harris has run through the Bills’ defense, and I’m expecting a breakout game from the fourth-year running back. In the last matchup, the Patriots could only manage 60 yards. The Bills should have the edge, but this matchup could be a deciding factor.

When the Patriots pass – Edge: Bills

The Patriots’ passing offense has taken a step back from last year and has faced its fair share of criticism this season. In Week 13, the Bills’ defense took care of business, as they held Mac Jones to 195 yards, and Jakobi Meyers was the only Patriots receiver with over two receptions. Meyers had 49 yards against Miami and hauled a crucial pass from Mac Jones for a touchdown. However, second-round pick Tyquan Thornton led the Patriots’ receivers with 60 receiving yards and a touchdown. The rookie is a vital player that could have another strong game against a weak Bills pass defense. The Bills are allowing just over 213 yards through the air, 14th in the league but are only allowing 6 yards a pass, sixth in the league. Tre’Davious White is leading the Bills’ secondary; White only played a handful of snaps after tearing his ACL last season. Meanwhile, Jordon Poyer and rookies Kaiier Elam and Christian Benford get their share of snaps. The Bills’ pass rush won’t make things easier for the Patriots as Matt Milano, A.J. Epenesa, and Shaq Lawson rush from the edges.

When the Bills run – Edge: Patriots

After the Chiefs locked up the one seed, the Bills will prominently want to run the ball as they try to remain in good health for the playoffs. The Patriots have improved throughout the season, limiting opposing running backs, and the Bills don’t have any Pro Bowl backs. Devin Singletary and James Cook run the show for Buffalo. Singletary leads the team with 790 rushing yards, but quarterback Josh Allen isn’t far behind with 760 yards on the ground. Josh Allen separates himself from other quarterbacks with his ability to run the football and throw it. The Bills are second in the league, averaging 5.3 yards a carry, and are seventh, running for 142 yards per game. However, those numbers are mainly due to Josh Allen’s dual-threat ability. For New England, the return of Christian Barmore has helped the defensive line tremendously. Barmore, Lawrence Guy, Davon Godchuax, Deatrich Wise, and Carl Davis help limit the run game for opposing offenses. Ja’Whaun Bentley, Jahlani Tavai, and Anfernne Jennings help close the second level at linebacker. Due to this effort, the Patriots only allow 106.4 yards per game and 4.1 yards per carry (both sixth in the league). Expect another big game for the Patriots defense fueled by Kyle Dugger and Devin McCourty.

When the Bills pass – Edge: Bills

The Bills passing offense is as good’s as any team and will give an impressive Patriots secondary problems. Allen’s ability to keep plays alive is incredible, and the Patriots will need to do better on third down after letting the Bills convert 9 of 15 third downs in Week 13. Stefon Diggs is Allen’s favorite target, as he’s the only NFL receiver with 100+ catches, 1,300+ yards, and ten touchdowns. However, the Bills have other dynamic pass catchers, such as Dawson Knox, Gabriel Davis, and Isaiah McKenzie do damage as well. The Patriots will need a dominant pass rush, and Josh Uche and Matthew Judon need to get home to Allen. The Pass rush will be an essential key to beating Buffalo. Unfortunately, the Patriots announced cornerback Jalen Mills would be inactive for the sixth consecutive game. Mills had a promising start to his 2022 campaign but has been injured since Thanksgiving night with a groin injury. Marcus Jones missed the Week 12 contest with the Dolphins but is poised to make his return after suffering a concussion in Week 16. Since the Patriots’ offense can’t afford to get in a shoot-out game of 30+ points, their defense will need to do its best to limit Josh Allen.

Special Teams – Edge: Bills

The Patriots’ special is on track to finish as one of the worst special teams units in recent years, which is a shame because it’s mostly the punters’ fault. Nick Folk has been consistent and proven he can still make long field goals, as he made a crucial 49-yarder last week in Miami but missed his first extra point of the season. The Patriots started this season with Jake Bailey as their punter, but he couldn’t find any rhythm and was eventually placed on the injured reserve with a back injury. The thought was that Bailey would return last week, but instead, the Patriots chose to suspend the punter due to a disagreement between him and the Patriots’ coaching staff. Micheal Palardy has taken over for the Patriots and hasn’t produced nearly enough, giving opposing offenses significant field positions. The Patriots are also allowing big returns on kickoffs. Last week against the Dolphins, Raheem Mostert had two returns past the 35-yard line. Marcus Jones was inactive last week due to an injury but looked to return and resume his return duties. For Buffalo, Tyler Bass is one of the best kickers in the league, along with punter Sam Martin. Nyheim Hines handles punt and kick returns and recorded a 28-yard punt return last week. The Bills should have the edge in this matchup.

Head coaching staff

New England:

Head Coach – Bill Belichick

Senior football advisor/offensive line – Matt Patricia

Offensive assistant/quarterbacks – Joe Judge

Running backs – Vinnie Sunseri

Wide receivers – Troy Brown

Offensive line – Billy Yates

Linebackers – Steve Belichick

Linebackers – Jerod Mayo

Cornerbacks – Mike Pellegrino

Special teams coordinator – Cam Achord

Buffalo:

Head Coach – Sean McDermott

Offensive coordinator – Ken Dorsey

Quarterbacks – Joe Brady

Running backs – Kelly Skipper

Wide receivers – Chad Hall

Offensive line – Aaron Kromer

Defensive coordinator – Leslie Frazier

Defensive line – Eric Washington

Safties – Jim Salgado

Special teams coordinator – Matthew Smiley

Injury Report

Key:

DNP: Did not participate in practice

LP: Limited participation in practice

FP: Full participation in practice

NL: Not listed

Patriots:

Out

N/A

Questionable

TE Jonnu Smith (concussion)

CB Jonathan Jones (chest)

C David Andrews (thigh)

WR Jakobi Meyers (shoulder)

CB Jalen Mills (groin)

DB Brenden Schooler (hip)

Bills:

Out

N/A

Questionable

N/A

Latest Patriots transactions

Placed CB Jack Jones and P Jake Bailey on the suspended/reserve list.

Game Officials

Head Referee – Clay Martin (8th season in the NFL and 5th as head official)

Weather Forcast

Clear skies. Low 24F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. 3% snow.

Patriots Beat Prediction

Patriots: 31

Bills: 30

Game stories linked

This will be updated as more articles get published.

Patriots honor Damar Hamlin at Gillette Stadium

Patriots have moved Jake Bailey and Jack Jones from the IR to the suspended list

Patriots are healthy as they head to Buffalo for Week 18

Quotes from the week: Patriots try to turn their attention to Buffalo

BROADCAST INFORMATION

Per Patriots.com

TELEVISION: This week’s game will be broadcast by CBS and can be seen locally on WBZ-TV Channel 4. Jim Nantz will handle play-by-play duties with Tony Romo as the color analyst. Tracy Wolfson will report from the sidelines. The game will be produced by Jim Rikhoff and directed by Mike Arnold.

LOCAL RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub is the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.

NATIONAL RADIO: This week’s game will be broadcast by Sports USA. Josh Appel will handle play-by-play duties with Brandon Noble providing analysis.

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