Game Preview: Bills vs Patriots

The Patriots and Bills are gearing up to play for Thursday Night Football. The storylines write themselves, how will the Patriots be able to recover from a brutal wildcard loss In Buffalo? Will Bill Belichick carve up a game plan to limit Josh Allen? The path to the Postseason becomes clear if the Patriots can upset the Bills. If they lose, it gets much more complicated. Needless to say, this game is essential. I go into everything you need to know, including fast facts, former players, who win each matchup, quotes from the opponent, where to watch, and more. Follow along for coverage on Twitter @Thepatriotsbeat. Let’s dive in.

Quick hits

* The Bills and Patriots will square off for the 126th time, with the Patriots owning a 77-47 record.

* The Patriots will be wearing their “Pat the Patriots” throwback uniforms for the second time this season. The Patriots also wore them in Week 5 against the Lions, where they won 28-0.

* The Patriots are undefeated when wearing the throwbacks at home (7-0).

* New England will play back-to-back Thursday night games for the first time in franchise history.

* The Patriots hold a 16-4 record when playing the Bills at Gillette Stadium. However, Buffalo beat New England last season at home.

* Safety team captain Devin McCourty will play in his 200th NFL game as a Patriot this Thursday. McCourty has started in each game he has played (199) and will be the third Patriot to play in 200 games.

* Matthew Judon is first in the NFL in sacks with 13, and he is on pace for 22 sacks which would be one sack short of claiming the NFL record. Judon would also clear the franchise record, which Andree Tippit holds with 18.5 sacks.

* If Tyquan Thornton has a rushing touchdown this week, he will become the first rookie wide receiver with two rushing touchdowns.

* CB Jalen Mills needs one interception this week to match his career-high (3).

Connections

Former Patriots

WR Jake Kumerow (Patriots player, 2017, Bills player 2021-present)

C Ryan Wendell (Patriots player 2008-2015, Bills Asst. OL coach 2020-present)

Former Bills

OL Connor McDermott (Bills player, 2017-2019, Patriots Player: 2022-present)

Who has the advantage?

When the Patriots run: Bills

The Patriots received some difficult news earlier in the week when NFL reporter Ian Rapoport tweeted that running back Damien Harris is unlikely to play Thursday. Damien Harris injured his thigh last week in Minnesota and has already missed two games this season due to a hamstring injury. Instead, Rhamondre Stevenson is expected to carry the entire workload. Stevenson started hot but hasn’t produced as much in the running game. Last week the Patriots earned only 45 yards on 13 carries. However, the Patriots will likely see the return of veteran David Andrews, who exited the Jets game with a leg injury. Behind the sophomore back Stevenson, rookie running backs Pierre Strong Jr. and Kevin Harris may see snaps. The rookies have combined for four carries and ten yards. The Bills’ defensive line consists of Ed Oliver, Jordan Phillips, and DaQuan Jones. On average, the Bills’ front allows 105.6 rushing yards per game, seventh in the league. Buffalo is ninth in the league allowing 4.24 yards per carry. The first matchup between these foes last season saw the Patriots run the ball 46 times and only pass three times. New England should run the ball a decent amount but nothing compared to Week 13 last season. The Bills’ pass defense is top-tier, and the Patriots will have to get some action on the ground to pull off an upset.

When the Bills run: Patriots

Quarterback Josh Allen is first in the league in attempts, and the Bills often don’t lean on their run game. Overall the Bills have run for 1,504 yards and rank second, averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season. Devin Singletary get’s the call when Buffalo decides to run and averaged 4.5 yards a carry. However, the runner the Patriots need to keep their attention on is Josh Allen. Allen leads the Bills with 561 rushing yards, averaging 6.9 yards a carry on 81 attempts. Last season Allen leg’s ability extended plays on the ground. The Bills also have rookie James Cook on their roster, whose performance started poorly, but he’s seen his snaps increase as of late. Cook has 259 yards on the season, averaging 5.6 yards a carry. Buffalos’ run game success is a credit to their offensive line, which controls the line of scrimmage in most games. Meanwhile, the Patriots continue to be effective in stopping the run, as they limited the other Cook brother (Dalvin) to 42 yards last week. Lawrence Guy, Deatrich Wise, Davon Godchaux, and Carl Davis led the effort on the defensive line. I like this matchup for New England, and the Patriots best chance at winning is making the Bills uncomfortable in the passing game and forcing them to run the ball.

When the Patriots pass: Bills

The Patriots found a rhythm in their passing game against the Vikings, and Mac Jones had his breakout game throwing for 382 yards on two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Jones hasn’t thrown an interception in four games, a career-long for the sophomore. Part of the success in the passing game was due to the improved pass protection, which gave Mac time to throw. Wideout Jakboi Meyers only played a handful of snaps due to a shoulder injury, so veteran DeVante Parker and tight end Hunter Henry carved out a big role in the offense. Meyers is expected to play and will provide a boost to the offense. It will be hard to repeat last week, but the Patriots have the tools to get it done. The Bills’ secondary allows 221.6 passing yards per game (19th) and 6.27 yards per pass (10th). Buffalo has been accustomed to many injuries on the defensive side as newly acquired draft pick Kaiir Elam and veterans Tre’Davious White and Micah Hyde have been suffering from various injuries. Furthermore, last week against the Bills, All-Pro Von Miller suffered a knee injury and will be inactive this week. That is a huge lift for the Patriots, as Miller has been making opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable all season. The Patriots’ offensive line will have its hands full with a Bills pass rush that has notched 30 sacks thus far.

When the Bills pass: Bills

The Bills passing offense may be the best in the league, and Josh Allen and his receivers have decimated the Patriots before. Stephon Diggs leads the Bills with 84 receptions for 1,110 yards and nine touchdowns, but Gabe Davis also propels the offense with 33 catches for 650 yards and five touchdowns. This season Josh Allen has thrown for 3,183 yards averaging 7.8 yards per pass and completing 63.9% of passes, but he’s constantly thrown interceptions in the red zone, giving the Patriots a chance for hope. Allen has also been dealing with an elbow injury he suffered earlier in the season but was removed from the injury report Monday. Last week the Patriots had to deal with arguably the NFL’s best receiver, Justin Jefferson. New England couldn’t respond to the challenge and let Jefferson run through them. In the past few weeks, the Patriots have dropped multiple interceptions. Against Buffalo, you may only get one bad pass, so you have to capitalize. This is the biggest key to the game for New England, minimizing the damage Josh Allen can do.

Special teams: Patriots

The last time the Patriots and Bills met, the Patriots didn’t force a single punt. This time let’s all hope it’s a bit different. In 2022 both kickers have been efficient and consistent. Nick Folk is 24 of 28 on field goals and has made all 23 of his extra points. While Tyler Bass is 23 of 26 and 32/33 on extra points. Bass connected on a 45-yard game-winning field goal last week in Detriot and has been excellent in crucial moments. The punting game has been a mess for New England thus far. They started the season with Jake Bailey, but he then placed on the Injured Reserve. Left Punter Micheal Palardy got the call and was great in his first game with the Patriots, but last week was a different story, as he only averaged 41.6 yards a punt. Sam Martin handles punt duties for Buffalo, but he’s not utilized much. Last week the Patriots allowed a kick return touchdown for the first time in a decade, and they will have to clean up their kicking coverage this week. Marcus Jones handles the return game for the Patriots and has been a big lift to the offense, often creating good field position. Nyheim Hines returns punts and kicks for Buffalo but has been nothing special thus far.

Senior coaching staff

New England:

Head Coach – Bill Belichick

Senior football advisor/offensive line – Matt Patricia

Offensive assistant/quarterbacks – Joe Judge

Running backs – Vinnie Sunseri

Wide receivers – Troy Brown

Offensive line – Billy Yates

Linebackers – Steve Belichick

Linebackers – Jerod Mayo

Cornerbacks – Mike Pellegrino

Special teams coordinator – Cam Achord

Buffalo:

Head Coach – Sean McDermott

Offensive coordinator – Ken Dorsey

Quarterbacks – Joe Brady

Running backs – Kelly Skipper

Wide receivers – Chad Hall

Offensive line – Aaron Kromer

Defensive coordinator – Leslie Frazier

Defensive line – Eric Washington

Safties – Jim Salgado

Special teams coordinator – Matthew Smiley

Injury Report

Key:

DNP: Did not participate in practice

LP: Limited participation in practice

FP: Full participation in practice

NL: Not listed

Patriots:

Did not participate

RB Damien Harris (thigh)

OT Isaiah Wynn (foot)

S Jabrill Peppers (illness)

Limited participant

WR Jakobi Meyers (shoulder)

OT Yodny Cajuste (calf)

C David Andrews (thigh)

CB Jalen Mills (groin)

CB Marcus Jones (ankle)

Bills:

Did not participate

RB Taiwan Jones (veteran rest)

WR Stefon Diggs (veteran rest)

TE Quintin Morris (illness)

OT Dion Dawkins (ankle)

LB Von Miller (knee)

Limited participant

N/A

Latest Patriots transactions

N/A

Game Officials

Head Referee – Shawn Hochuli (8th season in the NFL and 5th as head official)

Weather Forcast

Clear skies. Low 24F. Winds W at 10 to 15 mph. 3% snow

Noteworthy quotes

Per Patriots.com

Bills:

On facing the Patriots

“They’re a team that is playing at a high level right now. We’ve got to be ready for whatever they can throw at us. We’ve got to be ready to go win over there in a division game and a hostile environment.”- Bills Quarterback Josh Allen

“Obviously, big divisional rival game this week. We’re excited to play on the road in New England. This is what NFL football is about.”- Bills Safety Jordan Poyer

On the Patriots defense

“Obviously they’re good on defense, they’ve been good for a long time. And they do some things that obviously pose offensive problems week in and week out. So at the end of the day, it’s going to come down to execution and us putting our guys in the best spot for them to feel comfortable to go out and execute at a high level against a tough division opponent on the road.” – Bills Offensive Coordinator Ken Dorsey

“They’re so well coached and the guys have so much talent. They have arguably one of the best coaches ever. They’re always in the right place at the right time. They’re active and they have playmakers back there. We’ve got to hone in on the details this week and really lock in on it. The defense is going to give us their best just like everybody else.” – Bills Wide Receiver Stefon Diggs

“Very good defense. They are stout in stopping the run. They do a lot things in the back end with the various and multiple ways they play man coverage. They’ve got a really good secondary. Obviously, {Devin} McCourty is back there and he’s been back there for a long time. Just a veteran leader and plays a lot of good football whether it is run game, pass game. He’s extremely smart. They’ve got a really good defense.” – Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott

On the Patriot’s offense

On the Patriots offense… “They’ve got some playmakers over there. [Nelson] Agholor and [DeVante] Parker are guys that can take the ball down the field and make catches. 16 in the slot [Jakobi Meyers] he’s able to make some nice contested catches and Mac’s able to distribute the ball. Going into any game like this you’ve got to be able to stop the run. We’re going to come in with the mindset of stopping the run in order to effect the quarterback.” – Bills Safety Jordan Poyer

Patriots:

On Josh Allen in the pocket

“Yeah, he’s very dangerous out of the pocket, he’s dangerous in the pocket. So just team defense. Playing with our leverage, using our teammates help, them being where they need to be, being aggressive. He’s a hard guy to get and you can’t just stand there and watch him throw because he’ll throw it pretty good, too. So it’ll be a challenge for us.” – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

On Patriot’s struggles on third-down

“Yeah, I think you put emphasis on things, and I think that’s definitely something we need to improve at. Keep staying on the field and letting our defense get some rest and being able to do that. We have to improve obviously that area. I don’t know what teams around the league, or the best teams are doing right now, but you obviously want to be better than what we’ve been these past couple of games. But, yeah, I think it’s also important to realize that it’s just plays. You can’t overlook the situation, but you have to execute the plays and then the results will come. So regardless if it’s first down, second down, third, red zone, backed up, two-minute, it doesn’t matter as long as we’re doing the right things on that play. Definitely want to improve there and see what we can do better.” Patriots quarterback Mac Jones

On Bills receiver Gabriel Davis

“Big, strong guy. Hard to tackle. Big target, fast. 98-yard touchdown, I mean you’ve got to respect his big play ability. Those two guys complement each other well, [Dawson] Knox, [Isaiah] McKenzie. I mean Allen makes it all go. Those guys are open, they make big plays. Sometimes they’re not open, or something happens, and he makes big plays on his own. So, they’re hard to defend.” – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick

Broadcast information

Per Patriots.com

TELEVISION: This week’s game will be broadcast by Prime Video and can be seen locally on WFXT-TV Channel 25. Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties with Kirk Herbstreit as the color analyst. Kaylee Hartung will work from the sidelines. The game will be produced by Fred Gaudelli and directed by Pierre Moossa.

NATIONAL RADIO: Thursday’s game will be broadcast to a national audience on Westwood One. Ian Eagle will call the game with former Patriot and Super Bowl Champion Jason McCourty providing analysis.

LOCAL RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub is the flagship station for the Patriots Radio Network. Play-by-play broadcaster Bob Socci will call the action along with former Patriots quarterback Scott Zolak, who will provide color analysis. The games are produced by Marc Cappello.

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