The New England Patriots are 1-2 entering Week 4. Many media members and fans are concerned that the team isn’t making the strides that were expected. This time last year, the Patriots were also 1-2—but frankly, they looked better. Through three games in 2024, they only had one fumble and were rushing for 145 yards per game (8th in the league). This season, offensive linemen Morgan Moses and Will Campbell each lead the team with three false starts. In addition, the Patriots are coming off a loss in which they turned over the ball five times and shot themselves in the foot almost every drive.
Of course, the record doesn’t tell the whole story. New England has been competitive in every game. They’re outgaining opponents and showing flashes of being a playoff-caliber squad. However, after diving into the tape, it’s clear the Patriots still have some major work to do.
Starting with the offense, it’s clear that Drake Maye and Josh McDaniels aren’t getting the credit they deserve. They’re better than average, and the numbers back it up. The Patriots rank 11th in total yards per game (347) and seventh in passing yards per game (262). Maye has taken a major step forward from last year, and the team has just over a 50 percent success rate on offense, which is third in the league. Drake Maye is averaging 73.8 more passing yards per game in 2024 than in his rookie season. Per NFL Gen Stats, that is the third-largest increase in passing yards per game from a player’s first to second season since 1980.
In 11-personnel sets (three wide receivers, one tight end, and one running back), the Patriots are at their best. They record a 52 percent success rate (9th in the league) and have found consistency in the run game. Their most effective look comes from a “trips” formation (3×1 set). Four of their five passing touchdowns have come from this set, which they use more than average. Stretching the field horizontally in these formations creates windows because the defense is so spread out and allows Maye to easily go through his progression.
This reliance on spread sets also shows up on third down. On third-and-long, the Patriots rank second in the league with a 36 percent conversion rate. That’s actually remarkably good. For reference, they only convert 42 percent of third downs with 2-5 yards to go. The success on third-and-long comes from Maye’s ability to thrive in empty or 11-personnel packages, where he can attack space. Spread sets don’t create push in the run game because there are fewer bodies in the box.
The Patriots are challenged, particularly on early downs when they shift into heavier formations with two tight ends (12-personnel). This is partly due to opposing defenses loading the box. The run game leans heavily on zone-scheme concepts. Split-zone, which uses the backside tight end to hold the linebacker on the weak side and create cutback lanes, is also used frequently. Occasionally they mix in counter schemes, but these haven’t had much success. From a hash perspective, the Patriots are more predictable: through three weeks, they’ve seen blitzes from the right hash 45 percent of the time, while runs from the left hash only occurred about 15 percent of the time.
The Patriots’ offense moves the ball with rhythm at times, but they lack explosive plays. Only 5 percent of total snaps are chunk plays. (bottom five in the NFL). Still, they are capable of driving the ball; the average drive lasts 9.5 plays, the seventh-longest in the league. The issue is scoring: the team averages just two offensive touchdowns per game (20th in the league), and their explosiveness ranks 27th. Mistakes have also cost them, with the O-line allowing 12 sacks and the running backs losing four fumbles, both bottom-five marks.
Defensively, the Patriots are dominant against the run. They allow just 61 rushing yards per game (second-best in the league). Along with that they only give up only three rushing first downs per game. Opponents average 3.0 yards per carry and less than 2.5 yards when rushing outside the tackles. The front seven controls the line of scrimmage and forces opponents into passing situations.
But when it turns to the passing defense, the Patriots immensely struggle. They give up 272 passing yards per game (29th in the NFL), with 9.3 yards per attempt (last in the league). Opponent quarterbacks are thriving, especially against zone coverage. On Cover 3, opposing quarterbacks have a success rate over 60 percent.
Even though the pass rush has generated nine sacks, the pressure hasn’t been consistent enough to mask secondary struggles. The hopeful return of Christian Gonzalez (hamstring) this week against the Panthers could improve these numbers.
So what do these numbers actually mean? The Patriots are a team defined by extremes. Their run defense is elite, but their pass defense is near the bottom. Their offense can move the chains and string plays together, but red-zone efficiency and explosiveness are lacking. Maye thrives against man coverage and Cover 0, but when protection breaks down, play-calling is limited. Don’t get me wrong—the Patriots are competitive and can hang with opponents. But with their coverage busts, a lack of chunk plays, and turnovers are holding them back.
My name is Ben Belford-Peltzman and I am the creator and writer of The Patriots Beat. I am a 19-year kid who is an optimistic pessimist about the City of Champions. I started The Patriots Beat in August of 2022 and never expected to grow so much but here we are. Feel free to email Ben.BelfordPeltzman@gmail.com with any inquires.
